Spitfires - How Many are Really Left?

[Josef]

So, you may have come across the website HowManyLeft which displays the data on car makes and models available from the DVLA. It's a fantastic resource and interesting to poke around in. However, there is a problem: the data that the DVLA holds is patchy and inconsistent for cars as old as the Spitfire. This means the visualisations on HowManyLeft are not going to tell us the whole story. It also means people regularly misinterpret the data. Particularly eBay sellers trying to make their early roundtail look super rare. That's what got me looking at this data, seeing a number of ads for Spitfire 4 Mk1s that claimed there were only ~19 left in the UK. There was no way that could be true I thought, but how could I find a more realistic number?

The data HowManyLeft uses is publicly available, so I downloaded a copy myself and played about with it using Python. I've concentrated on the car model by year of manufacture, and car model by year of first registration data sets. For simplicity I've combined the SORN and taxed numbers. What we get here is data for Triumph Spitfire Mk1, Spitfire Mk2, Spitfire Mk3, Spitfire Mk4, Spitfire 1500, and Spitfire (with no model specifier). A bit of investigation highlighted three main problems. The Spitfire data set with no model specifier includes a significant number of the total, the  “Mk4” category includes cars built / registered from 1963-67 which are more likely Spitfire 4 Mk1 / Mk2, and each of the data sets contain cars where the reg / manufacture year is not known.

To get a better estimate I've done the following. Corrected for obviously wrong entries (Mk4 cars built / registered before 1967), distributed any cars with unknown reg / manufacture dates proportionally based on the entries where the reg / manufacture date is known, and separated the Spitfire data set based on production dates as given in Robson: Triumph Spitfire and GT6 (Mk1: Oct 62 -> Dec 6; Mk2: Dec 64 -> Jan 67; Mk3: Jan 67 -> Dec 70; MkIV: Nov 70 -> Dec 74; 1500: Dec 74 -> Aug 80). There's a lot of assumption here, so these numbers are only a rough estimate, but comparing the data by year of registration and year of manufacture should give us a more realistic idea than simply looking at those cars that happen to be registered as 'Spitfire Mk1' and 'Spitfire Mk2'. What this gives us is a figure of 292 Mk1/Mk2s by year of first registration, and 428 by year of manufacture. So roughly 300-400 cars known to the DVLA, still a small number, but much more healthy than double figures!

I will to produce graphs for the later models at some point, and there's also the data on the International Spitfire Database to have a play with.

[Stratton Jimmer]

Love this thread. That is very perceptive work Josef.

[Ian Smith]

Going upon Josef's post (nice work, Josef ) I had a little look at the GT6 page.  It seems that the number of these has remained steady for the last year or two, and has actually gone up. 

Whereas tourists go to Cuba to see the old cars which are kept going, perhaps it'll become the same for the UK.  I think there was a article the other day about the vintage & classic car market remaining buoyant. Is that correct?

 

Cheers,

Ian. 

[Nick Jones]

The numbers on the “How many left” site are complete tosh. Clearly way lower than reality. Mainly because the original data from the DVLA is complete tosh.

Problem arises from inconsistent data entry and spelling/spacing errors from right back when the vehicles were first registered, so you’d need to do a whole series of searches with every combination you can think of to get anywhere near.

Nick

[Gully]

17 minutes ago, Ian Smith said:

Going upon Josef's post (nice work, Josef ) I had a little look at the GT6 page.  It seems that the number of these has remained steady for the last year or two, and has actually gone up. 

 

Andy Cook wrote an interesting Courier article on the number of remaining GT6s in the UK - that suitably debunked the 'How Many Left' figures.

Gully

[Ian Smith]

Hi Folks,

Well, I submitted my previous post upon that of Josesf's work. if it is, indeed, 'tosh' (and, it might be ) would anyone care to update the figures?

I say this not as a combative statement, but in support of what is (I hope) an open forum.

After all, if more people feel the Triumph is an eminently practical classic (which it is ) then even   more people might get interested in what's it all about. 

I think we all know & understand that a healthy core of existing cars can roughly translate to a healthy spares base.

I do wonder about the 1 existing Moskvitch 406/8 which allegedly still exists..... 

[dougbgt6]

Well done to Josef but.......

Computer rule number 1 

Garbage in = garbage out

My V5 originally classified my GT6 as a "convertible" thanks to the DVLA. The first Gitfire? Well no, it's a coupe same as the rest. 

In the engine section I want to know more about the two 500cc GT6s!  

Also the two 1500cc GT6s. I think one of these is John Bonnett's legendary fibreglass GT4 which started life as a GT6. It's still around, changed hands last June. 

It's interesting to see the seasonal fluctuation between licensed and SORN which stopped in 2014.  And in 2017 SORN briefly exceeds licensed for the first time. 

Doug

db

[Josef]

23 minutes ago, dougbgt6 said:

Garbage in = garbage out

Well yes the data set is poor (noticeably better looking for the Spit 1500s, which were all produced after centralised registration so no real surprise the consistency improved there), which means there are a lot of assumptions in my analysis, and that is why I’ve written nothing in absolutes. But as there’s nothing else available, (Barring the Spitfire Database, but that has its own limitations) a slightly more informed estimate is better than a really rubbish one!

[Colin Lindsay]

15 hours ago, Mathew said:

Ever though of doing the government covid figures?!

There's loads of duff statistics floating about, as in this question on the 'Honest John' website:

 

[Badwolf]

There is also the situation, and please correct if I am wrong, that when SORN was first introduced, you registered and forgot about it. Only at a later date was an annual SORN return required. I my case, my Spit was SORN registered and slept in the garage un-troubled until she was put back on the road numerous years after the one and only SORN declaration. When she went back on the road I wrote to the DVLA to apologise and point out that they had not kept their records up to date by advising me of the requirements. Got a very nice note back along with the new style V5. So, there could still be an awful lot of sleeping Triumphs around the country. Is every 'barn find' registered as 'off road' every year? I doubt it. Obviously, there is absolutely no way of knowing how many, of anything, is still about.

[Josef]

Not to mention all the kit car / custom builds that’re still erroneously registered as Spitfire, Herald etc! 

[Badwolf]

Matthew - Thanks for that. Of course there is then the question as to why the DVLA didn't notify the last registered keeper of changes to the legislation.

Of course ignorance of the law is no excuse, which is why everyone spends all of their time reading law books to make sure they are up to date!!!! Naturally, this discussion won't go anywhere near Covid regulations, especially in certain London SW1 areas!!!

[Badwolf]

Doesn't surprise me. Everyone tells you the letter of the law....when they want money.

[Colin Lindsay]

2 hours ago, Mathew said:

So there could be some cars sleeping pre sorn days.

I do have one... 1964 Herald Estate found in a hedge, hauled out, trailered to a mate's farm, and left there. I haven't seen him or it, since 1998... bar a few Christmas cards etc. I'm assuming that it still exists! SORN came in in later years, it was never declared SORN nor do I have the V5 for it as it was never registered in my name. I often wonder, if it ever got so far, if the DVA have access to the old records from when that car was actually on the road, or would they argue / dispute any attempt to register it and would they ask awkward questions about where it has been all these years? They're not as forgiving as they used to be.

[Badwolf]

There must be some mechanism for registering 'finds', even if all you find is an engine/chassis under a pile of rust. VIN number, engine number, heritage cert. It's there somewhere. Maybe just enough time for a Christmas card (belated)...hi, how are you, do you still have the car, please send me a New Year card with the engine number etc.

[Colin Lindsay]

1 minute ago, Mathew said:

Allways has been, v890 plus 25 pounds. Had to do it a few times.

I'll just have to work out some way of 'finding' it... that doesn't get everyone else in bother.

Pure speculation at present, I reckon even back then it was too far gone, but you can't even scrap them these days without having to declare it so and being a proper scrappie who can issue a certificate. Probably safer if it just fades away...